The blank cheque for airport expansion
The blank cheque for airport expansion
The public’s support for expansion in south eastern England has been clear for some time and is evident in our latest polling. Just over half (55%) of adults in and around London* support expansion at either Gatwick or Heathrow, with only 13% outright opposed to both.
Those in the metropolitan area are generally in agreement with the key economic arguments in favour of expansion, with 60% believing that the failure to expand will damage the UK economy. This sounds like a clear endorsement for expansion from residents, but it is ironically an absence of a clear lead from the public that could be driving the heated debate.Out of the 55% in support of expansion, a third (35%) of residents support both of the key options, with relatively few supporting one but not the other (11% having an outright preference for Gatwick and 8% only want Heathrow to go ahead).Perhaps it is unsurprising that polling reveals the public’s support takes the form of broad brush-strokes instead of a deeply considered opinion ? especially as 54% think it doesn?t affect them or their family. But is this why the rival camps are ramping up the rhetoric? Last month Tory Mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith said that the effects of Heathrow expansion would be a “catastrophic price to pay?, while the head of the airport commission Sir Howard Davies called Gatwick’s plans “entirely misguided”. Rarely do voters get such clear and colourful argument from public figures determined to cajole or persuade them off of the fence.What is more, they have singularly failed in their objective. Opinion has not changed significantly since we started polling this topic two years ago. Continually support has been broadly in favour of expansion, but without a clear favourite. Expansion at Gatwick has usually had the combination of the least opposition and most support, but so narrowly that it leaves options open.Hence, the Government has effectively been left to make up its own mind, and it has been clear for a while that their preference is Heathrow. Justin Greening, MP for a nice part of London under the Heathrow flight path, was reshuffled from the Transport portfolio. The commission itself was seen by some as skewed in favour of the Heathrow bid. In the event, its recommendation was unequivocally behind expansion at the west London airport. Now the only thing standing in the way is the political pressure from Boris Johnson and Zac Goldsmith.* Figures used in this article are amongst those who said their nearest city was London, which includes those in the Greater London area and some of the surrounding Home Counties.
