Polling Results

James Crouch looks at views on assisted dying and what it might mean for the Commons vote this week

Published 26th November 2024

This week, the House of Commons will vote on the second reading of The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, following a debate on its general principles. In essence, this means MPs will be debating the fundamental arguments surrounding assisted dying. As this debate returns to Parliament, we asked the British public earlier this year what they thought about the issue. Whatever the nuances of the policy, we found strong levels of public support for a change in the law.

Earlier on this year, we conducted a large-scale survey for Dignity in Dying, polling almost 11,000 people across Great Britain to measure levels of support for legalising assisted dying. The poll covered a range of topics and included a brief explanation of what is meant by assisted dying:

“In the questions that follow, we will be discussing the topic of ‘assisted dying’. By this, we mean when a terminally ill adult of sound mind can legally seek assistance to end their life by taking life-ending medication, following the approval of two doctors. This is currently illegal in the UK but is legal in New Zealand, Australia, and several states in the USA.”

Public backing for the legalisation of assisted dying

The headline results from the poll on whether there should or should not be a change in the law were clear-cut. In January, three-quarters (75%) of UK adults supported making it lawful for someone to seek assisted dying, while only 14% actively opposed such a change. A further one in ten (11%) were unsure. Even accounting for any natural rebalancing or polarisation that can occur when debates increase in salience as issues come closer to the political forefront, the polling evidence indicates that the public’s starting point is one of sympathy and support for a change in the law.

Every constituency supports a law change

With such a large sample size, we were able to conduct an MRP analysis, a statistical technique that estimates levels of support at the individual constituency level. The detailed results are available on Dignity in Dying’s website. While it might not be surprising, given the overall numbers, it is worth stating that every single constituency in the UK shows at least a bare majority in favour of a change in the law.

This analysis also highlights the types of constituencies where support is strongest:

• Affluent and cosmopolitan cities: The two constituencies with the highest support, Brighton Pavilion (85% support, 8% oppose) and Bath (83% support, 10% oppose), exemplify affluent areas with strong socially liberal values that translate into support for a legislative change.
• Southern rural areas: Support is also robust across many rural areas in the South. Constituencies in the South West and East of England are abundant throughout the list of top 50 constituencies backing a change in the law. Prime examples include Frome & East Somerset (82% support, 9% oppose) in the West Country and Ely & East Cambridgeshire (82% support, 8% oppose) in East Anglia.
• The North mirrors the South: In case it appears otherwise, similar trends are also seen in Northern England too. For example, York Central and Harrogate & Knaresborough align with the patterns seen in Bath, while Westmorland & Lonsdale and Skipton & Ripon reflect their southern counterparts.

At the other end of the spectrum, constituencies with the lowest levels of support are primarily urban areas with complex, diverse communities. Birmingham Perry Barr has the lowest level of support (51% support, 30% oppose). In fact, Birmingham constituencies dominate the bottom three, with Ladywood and Hall Green & Moseley ranking just above Perry Barr in terms of levels of support.

Most faith communities support a change too

Faith communities add an interesting dimension to this debate. Notably, religion does not play as divisive a role as one might expect in shaping public opinion. For instance, self-identified Christians are almost as likely to support assisted dying (69% support, 20% oppose) as the public overall. Similar trends are seen among other faiths, though the gap between support and opposition is narrower. The primary exception is among those identifying as Muslim, where opposition to a change in the law narrowly leads (45% oppose, 34% support).

This trend explains why older and more rural areas of the UK often show support for a legislative change comparable to less religious, cosmopolitan areas. The main exceptions are specific pockets of some metropolitan areas.

What does this mean for the vote?

Another key question we asked was not just whether people support or oppose a change in the law, but what they want their MP to do if such a bill came before Parliament. Here, a plurality (43%) said they actively want their MP to back a change in the law, while 30% preferred to leave the decision to their MP’s conscience. Only one in ten (10%) wanted their MP to vote against the bill, with 18% unsure.

Broadly, this suggests the public can be divided into three groups. The largest cohort, about two in five people, clearly favour a change in the law and given a say would want their MP to back any related bill in parliament; a slightly smaller, secondary group also generally supports a change but is comfortable leaving the decision to their MP’s discretion; and a much smaller minority is firmly opposed.

Whether this distribution of public opinion will translate into MPs voting accordingly remains to be seen this Friday. However, as this vote is only the second reading—focused on principles rather than policy details—this is the only occasion where the broad public backing for a change in the law can be reflected in Parliament before the details and workability of the policy are debated.

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See the full table tables here.

Notes to Editor:

Opinium conducted an online survey amongst a nationally and politically representative sample of 10,897 UK Adults between 9th to 22nd February 2024. Three questions were modelled via Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to produce constituency-level estimates on the new constituency boundaries.