Opinium Voting Intention: 26th March 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings for party leaders
This week Keir Starmer’s approval shows another small dip from -29% to -32% , going down by 3 points. For other leaders, their approvals have suffered a dip: most notable is Kemi Badenoch, whose approval rating is down 5 percent compared to last week.
*Changes from 19th March 2025
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| Keir Starmer | 22% | 18% | 54% | 5% | -32% | -3 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 17% | 31% | 38% | 14% | -20% | -5 |
| Ed Davey | 20% | 41% | 22% | 17% | -2% | -3 |
| Nigel Farage | 26% | 22% | 42% | 9% | -16% | -4 |
The best prime minister question remains quite stable compared to last week. Starmer is ahead of Badenoch by 26% (+1) to 13 % (-1), but 45% (n/c) say “none of these”. This includes 25% (-3) of 2024 Labour voters, 46% (+5) of 2024 Tory voters and 69% (-4) of 2024 Reform voters.
Reeves and the Spring Statement
Rachel Reeves’ personal approval seems to have nototmed out before Spring Statement.
| The way Rachel Reeves is handling her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer | Pre-spring Statement | Post-Spring Statement |
| Approve | 16% | 15% |
| Disapprove | 56% | 56% |
| Net | -40 | -41 |
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Spring Statement
What made the news this week?
The Spring Statement comes second place in the news to the fire that broke out causing the close of Heathrow.
| News stories tested | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard |
| A fire breaking out near Heathrow that delayed and cancelled flights | 56% | 31% | 13% | 87% |
| Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces her Spring Statement | 40% | 38% | 22% | 78% |
| Russia and Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire in the Black Sea | 21% | 51% | 27% | 73% |
| A group chat between top US security officials, including Vice President JD Vance and the Defence Secretary, being leaked after a journalist was accidentally added to the group | 37% | 33% | 30% | 70% |
| Mark Carney being sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada | 17% | 40% | 43% | 57% |
Spring Statement
Economic context
The Chancellor emerges from the Spring Statement with the public continuing to feel the squeeze on living standards, with a plurality of UK adults describing their financial situation as ‘coping’ rather than ‘comfortable.’ 23% of UK adults say they are ‘struggling.’ Even in response to the budget, there is practically not change on this from last week.
| Financial situation | 14th August 2024 | 30th October 2024 | 18th Dec 2024 | 19th March 2025 | 26th March 2025 |
| Comfortable | 29% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 32% |
| Coping | 46% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 44% |
| Struggling | 23% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 23% |
The public also continues to be highly pessimistic about the UK economy, with over half (61%) believing the state of the UK economy will get worse over the next 12 months. This figure has actually gotten worse in response to the latest fiscal event, rising by 4 points since Reeves’ spring statement.
However, after the spring statement, there has been very little effect on outlook towards personal finances. 41% think their own finances will get worse over the next 12 months and this is completely unchanged from last week, before the spring statement.
| Expectations for the next 12 months | Get better | Stay about the same | Get worse |
| State of the UK economy | After: 11% Before: 12% | After: 23% Before: 24% | After: 61% Before: 57% |
| Your personal finances | After: 17% Before: 19% | After: 38% Before: 36% | After: 41% Before: 41% |
The UK public rates the UK economy relatively poorly compared to other countries, especially China (43% think the UK economy is worse than China’s), the United States (36%), and Germany (34%).
| Expectations for the next 12 months | UK economy better than… | UK economy about the same as… | UK economy worse than… |
| Italy | 17% | 22% | 20% |
| Poland | 17% | 18% | 21% |
| Spain | 15% | 21% | 23% |
| Ireland | 12% | 23% | 25% |
| France | 10% | 26% | 26% |
| Germany | 11% | 20% | 34% |
| United States | 15% | 16% | 36% |
| China | 9% | 10% | 43% |
Handling of the economy
For Labour, a supposedly big fiscal event has done very little. The dial remains unmoved on most facets of the economy, when compared to the Conservatives. The only area that it has shifted slightly is towards Labour in setting tax levels and improving business conditions.
| Which government do you think would be best at handling…? | A Labour government led by Keir Starmer | A Conservative government led by Kemi Badenoch | Neither | Lab lead | Pre Statement |
| Improving public services | 26% | 16% | 39% | Lab +10% | Lab +9% |
| Spending government money efficiently | 22% | 18% | 41% | Lab +4% | Lab +4% |
| Bringing down the national debt and deficit | 21% | 20% | 38% | Lab +1% | Con +1% |
| Improving your financial situation | 18% | 20% | 44% | Con +2% | Con +2% |
| Running the economy | 21% | 22% | 37% | Con +1% | Con +2% |
| Setting tax levels | 21% | 22% | 37% | Con +1% | Con +4% |
| Improving the conditions for businesses in the UK | 21% | 25% | 34% | Con +5% | Con +8% |
Voters are marginally more likely to believe the last government handled the economy better than the current one: 27% think Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt vs 22% think Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have handled the economy better. However, 36% think neither of them have handled it best. Just half of 2024 Labour voters (51%) think their government is handling the economy better than the last Conservative administration.
The Spring Statement itself
According to voters, this is the worst fiscal statement since the mini-budget, although not quite as bad: 43% thought the Spring Statement was bad, 12% thought it was good and 45% were not sure. This makes it the most poorly thought of
| Good or bad fiscal events? | Mini-budget 2022 | Spring Budget 2023 | Autumn Statement 2023 | Spring Budget 2024 | Autumn Budget 2024 | Spring Statement 2025 |
| Good budget | 12% | 18% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 12% |
| Bad budget | 61% | 33% | 27% | 38% | 35% | 43% |
| Not sure | 27% | 49% | 50% | 44% | 44% | 45% |
| NET – Good vs. Bad | -49% | -15% | -4% | -20% | -14% | -31% |
33% of 2024 Labour voters thought the Spring Statement was bad, while 21% thought it was good.
What was the chancellor trying to help with?
When UK adults are asked what they thought the Spring Statement tried to help with, the most common answer is “None of the above” (27%) or “Not Sure” (29%). 23% think it tried to help with government deficit and debt.
The policies
Despite this, many of the policies were generally seen to be a good idea. For example, the public backed the crackdown on tax avoidance (71% good idea), the investment in employment support (58%) and the overseas aid cut (57%). However, the cut to the health element of Universal Credit (39% bad idea) and the expansion of the third runway at Heathrow (35% bad idea) were much less popular.
| Policy | Good idea | Bad idea | Not sure |
| A crackdown on tax avoidance and fraud aims to increase tax fraud prosecutions by 20%, raising £1 billion | 71% | 9% | 20% |
| £1 billion investment in employment support and £400m for Jobcentres to help people back into work | 58% | 13% | 29% |
| Overseas aid cut to 0.3% of Gross National Income, saving £2.6 billion by 2029-30, which will be invested in defence spending | 57% | 17% | 25% |
| The base payments of Universal Credit to cover basic living costs to rise from £92 per week to £106 per week by 2030 | 53% | 17% | 30% |
| Defence spending, which had been due to rise £2.9 billion next year, to increase by a further £2.2 billion to fund new military tech, including air defence lasers and AI-powered systems | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| New planning reforms to help build 1.3 million new homes in 5 years and boost the economy | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Cutting up to 10,000 civil service jobs, with 15% cost reductions saving £2 billion | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Expansion of Heathrow Airport with a third runway | 31% | 35% | 34% |
| The health element of Universal Credit for those unable to work due to health conditions will be frozen at £97 per week for existing claimants until 2029/2030. For new claims, it will be reduced to £50 a week and then frozen at that rate until 2029/2030. | 31% | 39% | 30% |
Rachel Reeves has a struck a note amongst the public which says that the poor and the disabled are bearing the brunt of her fiscal measures: 58% think disabled people will be negatively impacted by the Spring Statement while 50% think those on lower incomes will be negatively impacted. This Is totally different from the Budget in the Autumn when those on lower incomes were seen to be the least hit by her measures (net -5%), the group seem least hit this time round are those on higher incomes who are seen as being positively impacted.
| Impact of the budget on | Positive impact | Neither | Negative impact | Net |
| Those on higher incomes | 23% | 37% | 17% | +6% |
| Those in work | 15% | 38% | 29% | -14% |
| The UK economy | 18% | 27% | 35% | -17% |
| Your personal finances | 9% | 39% | 36% | -27% |
| Retired people | 7% | 28% | 44% | -36% |
| Those on lower incomes | 11% | 21% | 50% | -39% |
| Disabled people | 8% | 17% | 58% | -50% |