Opinium Voting Intention: 5th March 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings for party leaders
Against the backdrop of multiple meetings with world leaders over ending the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, Keir Starmer has enjoyed a jump in approval ratings this week. Although still strongly disapproved of overall, he has risen by 10 points from -33 to -23 net approval. Badenoch and Ed Davey have seen small rises in their approval ratings, while Farage remains unchanged.
*Changes from 5th February 2025
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| Keir Starmer | 26% | 19% | 49% | 6% | -23% | +10 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 19% | 32% | 36% | 13% | -17% | +3 |
| Ed Davey | 23% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 2% | +4 |
| Nigel Farage | 29% | 23% | 39% | 9% | -10% | -1 |
Keir Starmer increases his lead over Kemi Badenoch on the best prime minister question by 28% (+3) to 13 % (-2), but 45% (-3) say “none of these”. This includes 23% (-5) of 2024 Labour voters, 40% (+1) of 2024 Tory voters and 76% (+2) of 2024 Reform voters.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Government handling of the economy and defence
- Ukraine – Russia conflict
What made the news this week?
Meetings between global leaders to try and resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has dominated people’s attention this week. Involvement of the US, in particular Trump and Zelenskyy’s public disagreement last Friday and the US suspending military aid to Ukraine are the most heard of stories by the public.
| News stories tested | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard |
| The public meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump in the oval office on Friday | 57% | 28% | 15% | 85% |
| The US suspending military aid to Ukraine | 44% | 38% | 18% | 82% |
| The meeting between Keir Starmer and Donald Trump last Thursday | 33% | 45% | 22% | 78% |
| The meeting between Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in London on Saturday | 31% | 44% | 25% | 75% |
| Keir Starmer giving Donald Trump an invitation from King Charles III to visit the UK for a second state visit | 35% | 39% | 27% | 73% |
| Keir Starmer hosting a leader’s summit on Ukraine with other European leaders last Sunday | 28% | 42% | 30% | 70% |
| The Vatican saying that Pope Francis is recovering and no longer in critical condition | 16% | 46% | 38% | 62% |
| JD Vance saying that a US stake in Ukraine’s economy was a “better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years” | 29% | 32% | 39% | 61% |
| The 97th Oscars, with Anora winning Best Picture | 12% | 41% | 48% | 52% |
| Labour committing to banning the sale of new leasehold flats | 10% | 35% | 54% | 46% |
Labour leads on party attributes
*Changes from 5th February 2025
Although Starmer is still in negative territory on all of his personal attributes, he is doing much better on all compared to when they were last asked of in early February. Largest increases for him are on being able to stand up for Britain abroad (+15), being a strong leader (+13) as well as being brave and decisive +12%).
| To what extent do you agree or disagree that Keir Starmer… | Net agreement now | Net agreement on 5th Feb | Change since 5th Feb |
| …is decisive | -8% | -20% | +12% |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -30% | -34% | +4% |
| …represents what most people think | -31% | -39% | +8% |
| …has similar views to my own | -34% | -37% | +4% |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -10% | -19% | +9% |
| …is a strong leader | -17% | -30% | +13% |
| …is able to get things done | -14% | -24% | +10% |
| …is able to stand up for Britain’s interests abroad | -9% | -23% | +15% |
| …sticks to his principles rather than just saying what people want to hear | -13% | -21% | +9% |
| …is trustworthy | -22% | -30% | +8% |
| …is brave | -16% | -28% | +12% |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -17% | -29% | +11% |
| …is competent | -10% | -20% | +10% |
| …is likeable | -23% | -33% | +10% |
Government handling of…
Economy
*Last asked 18th December 2024
Labour under Starmer continues to be seen as stronger on all economic issues than a Tory government led by Badenoch. Since last asked Labour have slightly increased their lead over the Tories on most issues. ‘Neither’ is still the most popular option when asked to choose between the two.
| Labour government | Conservative government | Neither | Not sure | Current Labour lead | Labour lead on 18th Dec | Increase in Labour lead | |
| Spending government money efficiently | 23% | 18% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 2% | +2% |
| Running the economy | 24% | 21% | 38% | 17% | 4% | 5% | +5% |
| Improving your financial situation | 19% | 18% | 46% | 18% | 1% | 2% | +2% |
| Bringing down the national debt and deficit | 22% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 3% | 4% | +4% |
| Improving public services | 29% | 14% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 3% | +3% |
| Setting tax levels | 23% | 21% | 37% | 19% | 2% | 3% | +3% |
Defence
*Last asked 22nd Jan 2025
- Labour leads on all six defence and foreign policy issues asked of, with the largest lead on relationship with the EU (+17%)
- When last asked of in January the public were split on whether Labour or the Tories would best on working with allies against threats and funding the armed forces. Labour now leads on both issues (+12% and +7% respectively), with large increases since then
- Neither is still the most responses given on all options however
| Labour government | Conservative government | Neither | Not sure | Current Labour lead | Labour lead on 22nd Jan | Increase in Labour lead | |
| Working with allies against threats to the UK | 30% | 18% | 30% | 22% | 12% | 1% | +11% |
| Increasing trade for UK businesses | 24% | 21% | 33% | 22% | 3% | 0% | +3% |
| Allocating funding to the armed forces / defence | 27% | 20% | 31% | 21% | 7% | -2% | +10% |
| UK’s reputation abroad | 28% | 19% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | +7% |
| The UK’s relationship with the European Union (EU) | 32% | 16% | 34% | 18% | 17% | 8% | +9% |
| Global humanitarian and human rights efforts | 28% | 13% | 35% | 25% | 15% | 11% | 3% |
Ukraine – Russia conflict
UK role
| Heard something I liked | Heard something I disliked | Haven’t heard anything | NET: Heard something | |
| Keir Starmer | 37% | 24% | 39% | 61% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 12% | 13% | 74% | 26% |
| Nigel Farage | 11% | 17% | 71% | 29% |
Three-fifths (61%) of people heard something from Keir Starmer this week regarding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with more people liking than disliking what he said. Little attention was paid to Badenoch or Farage’s comments about the issue, with around 1 in 4 saying they heard something from either of them.
In light of announced rises in defence spending, slightly more people believe the UK military is capable of defending the UK (49%, +4), with the number who think they are incapable unchanged (33%, N/C).
The number of people who believe the UK should increase defence spending is unchanged from our last poll (60%, N/C). More people believe it should be done through cutting spending (44%, +4) compared to increasing taxes (17%, -3). Notably, more 2024 Labour voters wish defence rises to come from spending cuts as opposed to tax rises (39% vs 26%) – Two weeks ago this group was split evenly (30% vs. 30%).
Those who think more money for defence spending should come from spending cuts were asked to specify on what should be cut:
- Two-thirds (66%) believe spending cuts to fund defence should come from international aid. Most Labour voters are supportive of this (59%), rising to 77% of Tories and 86% of Reform voters
- A third (32%) of people think welfare and benefit should be cut to fund defence. Among this group seven in 10 (72%) believe unemployment benefits specifically should be reduced
People were asked how united or divided they think the following are on negotiations for peace between Ukraine and Russia:
| United | Divided | NET: United vs. Divided | |
| The EU | 49% | 16% | 32% |
| Europe as a whole | 51% | 17% | 34% |
| UK and France | 54% | 10% | 44% |
| UK and US | 26% | 34% | -8% |
| UK and Ukraine | 67% | 6% | 61% |
| US and Ukraine | 11% | 62% | -51% |
Europe overall is considered united on the issue, with the UK and Ukraine having the strongest solidarity. The US and UK are considered slightly divided, with the US and Ukraine considered deeply divided.
Respondents were asked which European leader has been leading negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Keir Starmer is considered to be taking the main leading role (21%), followed by French president Emmanuel Macron (12%) and European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen (9%).
People are slightly more supportive now of other Western countries attempting to militarily intervene in Ukraine if the US and Russia agree a peace deal without Ukraine (44% support, +3 – 24% oppose, -1)
| Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | |
| Nigel Farage | 16% | 27% | 29% | -11% |
| Keir Starmer | 40% | 21% | 16% | 20% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 16% | 18% | 32% | -2% |
| Ed Davey | 13% | 13% | 37% | 1% |
| Donald Trump | 16% | 61% | 10% | -45% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 53% | 14% | 13% | 39% |
The public approve of both approve of both Zelenskyy and Starmer handling of the situation in Ukraine. Farage is mildly disapproved of, while Trump is very strongly disapproved of.
| Trust | Distrust | Don’t know | NET: Trust | |
| EU | 52% | 12% | 12% | 40% |
| UK | 62% | 9% | 11% | 53% |
| USA | 19% | 50% | 10% | -32% |
| Russia | 9% | 66% | 9% | -57% |
There is a strong divide among the public between who they trust and distrust in upholding their end of the deal between Ukraine and Russia. People firmly trust the EU and UK in adhering to a deal, while strongly distrusting the US and Russia to do the same.
White House meeting
Most people believing the meeting in the oval office last Friday between Trump and Zelenskyy went badly (6% well – 72% poorly). Whereas people think Zelenskyy behaved well, the Trump and Vance are considered to have behaved very badly.
| Well | Poorly | NET: Well | |
| Trump | 11% | 69% | -58% |
| Zelenskyy | 53% | 16% | 37% |
| Vance | 9% | 61% | -52% |
On Tuesday Trump announced the US would be suspending all military aid to Ukraine. 60% of people think this was the wrong thing to do, compared to 17% who think it was right – 23% don’t know. There is strong support from voters of all major parties that this was the wrong thing to do. Reform UK voters are the only group where there is more division on the issue (44% wrong, 33% right).
Uncertainty is high on whether there will be a US-facilitated peace deal in Ukraine. A quarter (24%) think it likely compared to a third who think unlikely (33%), with 24% saying they don’t know. In the event the US did broker a peace in the region people over half (55%) think it would benefit Putin and Russia the most, with only 17% think Zelenskyy and Ukraine would be main beneficiaries.
| Approve | Disapprove | NET: Approve | Don’t know | |
| US-led NATO-Western coalition to project Ukraine | 42% | 15% | +28 | 21% |
| Other major European power such as France and Germany | 48% | 14% | +34 | 17% |
| Other European countries near Ukraine, such as the Baltic states | 31% | 19% | +12 | 21% |