Opinium Voting Intention: 5th February 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings for party leaders
No real changes since our last poll two weeks ago. Keir Starmer remains close to his record low with -34%, Kemi Badenoch remains unchanged on -15%, Ed Davey on net neutral and Nigel Farage on -7%
*Changes are from 22nd January.
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| Keir Starmer | 22% | 17% | 56% | 6% | -34% | +1 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 20% | 31% | 35% | 14% | -15% | n/c |
| Ed Davey | 22% | 40% | 21% | 17% | 0% | n/c |
| Nigel Farage | 31% | 22% | 38% | 9% | -7% | n/c |
Keir Starmer continues to lead Kemi Badenoch on the best prime minister question by 24% to 15% but 46% now say “none of these”, this includes 28% of 2024 Labour voters, 39% of 2024 Tory voters and 71% of 2024 Reform voters.
What made the news this week?
For the second fortnight in a row, news from America has dominated the British attention. The most common news story was the plane and helicopter crash in Washington DC and Donald Trump’s tariffs. The highest UK politics news comes is the announcement of support for the third runway of Heathrow by Rachel Reeves, midway down the list of news stories we tested.
| News stories tested | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard |
| A passenger plane crashing into a military helicopter in Washington DC killing 67 people | 53% | 35% | 12% | 88% |
| Donald Trump announcing (and then postponing) significant tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico | 42% | 40% | 17% | 83% |
| Around 10 people being killed in a school shooting in Sweden | 30% | 46% | 24% | 76% |
| Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing the government’s support for a third runway at Heathrow Airport | 29% | 44% | 27% | 73% |
| A group of medical experts raising doubts about the evidence used to convict Lucy Letby | 23% | 49% | 28% | 72% |
| Commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz | 26% | 42% | 32% | 68% |
| The government announcing a crackdown on the use of AI for child abuse | 11% | 37% | 52% | 48% |
| AstraZeneca cancelling plans for a £450m vaccine plant in Liverpool | 12% | 26% | 62% | 38% |
Leaders
Keir Starmer’s leadership attributes
All of Keir Starmer’s attributes have deteriorated since last being asked in November:
- His best (relatively) performing are having the nation’s best interests at heart (-19%) and being competent and decisive (both -20%) while his worst are for representing what people think (-39%), having similar views to my own (-37%) and being in touch with ordinary people (-34%)
- The biggest changes are for being able to get things done (down 13 points), being a strong leader (down 11 points) and representing what most people think (also down 11 points)
- Since the general election, the biggest changes are also for representing what most people think (down 40 points) and being in touch (down 38 points)
| Keir Starmer attributes | 26 Jun 24 (GE) | 13 Nov 24 (Last wave) | 5 Feb 25 (This wave) | – | Change since the GE | Change since last wave |
| …is competent | +6% | -10% | -20% | -26% | -10% | |
| …is decisive | -2% | -11% | -20% | -18% | -9% | |
| …is able to get things done | +2% | -11% | -24% | -26% | -13% | |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | +11% | -11% | -19% | -30% | -8% | |
| …is able to stand up for Britain’s interests abroad | -1% | -13% | -23% | -22% | -10% | |
| …sticks to his principles rather than just saying what people want to hear | -6% | -15% | -21% | -15% | -6% | |
| …is brave | -4% | -19% | -28% | -24% | -9% | |
| …is a strong leader | -1% | -19% | -30% | -29% | -11% | |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -3% | -19% | -29% | -26% | -10% | |
| …is trustworthy | -3% | -22% | -30% | -27% | -8% | |
| …is likeable | -1% | -23% | -33% | -32% | -10% | |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | +4% | -27% | -34% | -38% | -7% | |
| …represents what most people think | +1% | -28% | -39% | -40% | -11% | |
| …has similar views to my own | -6% | -28% | -37% | -31% | -9% |
Kemi Badenoch’s leadership attributes
The jury remains mostly out on Kemi Badenoch but her scores are starting to drop with similar-sized changes since November as those for Keir Starmer
- Her best attributes remain sticking to her principles (+1) while her worst is on looking like a prime minister in waiting (-22%)
- Being brave, and looking like a PM in waiting are where Badenoch has seen the biggest drops
| Kemi Badenoch attributes | 13 Nov 24 (Last wave) | 5 Feb 25 (This wave) | – | Change since last wave |
| …sticks to her principles rather than just saying what people want to hear | +9% | +1% | -8% | |
| …is brave | +8% | -2% | -10% | |
| …is decisive | +7% | -2% | -9% | |
| …is competent | +3% | -2% | -5% | |
| …is a strong leader | -0% | -9% | -9% | |
| …is able to get things done | -1% | -10% | -9% | |
| …is able to stand up for Britain’s interests abroad | -2% | -7% | -5% | |
| …is likeable | -3% | -10% | -7% | |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -3% | -5% | -2% | |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -6% | -12% | -6% | |
| …is trustworthy | -6% | -13% | -7% | |
| …represents what most people think | -12% | -17% | -5% | |
| …looks like a Prime Minister in waiting | -12% | -22% | -10% | |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -13% | -19% | -6% | |
| …has similar views to my own | -14% | -19% | -5% |
Reform UK
Reform UK’s attributes
- Reform UK’s key strengths are that it has a “knows what it stands for” (net +22), “has a clear sense of purpose” (net +15), and “is in touch with ordinary people” (net +4).
- The party’s key weaknesses are “readiness for government” (net -18), “trust to take big decisions” (net -11) and “tolerant” (net -14).
| Reform UK… | Agree | Disagree | Net |
| …knows what it stands for | 45% | 23% | +22% |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | 41% | 26% | +15% |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | 36% | 32% | +4% |
| … is united | 33% | 28% | +4% |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | 35% | 34% | +1% |
| …represents what most people think | 34% | 35% | -1% |
| …has similar views to my own | 30% | 39% | -9% |
| …is competent | 28% | 35% | -7% |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | 26% | 37% | -11% |
| …is tolerant | 24% | 39% | -14% |
| …is ready for government | 26% | 44% | -18% |
The drivers of Reform UK’s vote: Among all voters, the main reason to vote for Reform UK is their immigration policy (37%), while the main reason to vote against them is Nigel Farage (27%). Among those who were 6 out of 10 or higher on the “0-10 would you consider voting Reform” question, the strength of feeling about immigration is still there. As you would expect, all the reason for voting Reform are much more prevalent with this group.
Immigration
Labour’s advantage on integration drops: While in August Labour had double digit advantages on many aspects of immigration policy, Labour has seen some big hits to its reputation in the area. In particular, Labour has seen its lead on the integration of different communities drop from Lab +18 to Lab +12.
Now, across all four areas tested almost half of UK adults now trust neither Labour or the Conservatives.
| Immigration-related issues | Lab | Con | Neither | – | Lab lead (5 Feb 25) | Lab lead (28 Aug 24) |
| The integration of different communities | 24% | 12% | 47% | +12% | +18% | |
| A fair process for asylum seekers to the UK | 23% | 15% | 45% | +8% | +16% | |
| A fair process for immigration to the UK | 23% | 16% | 46% | +7% | +14% | |
| The numbers of people migrating to the UK | 18% | 18% | 48% | 0% | +9% |
Economy
Labour still not prioritising economic growth according to the public: While the public remain clearly interested in prioritising economic growth over balancing the books (55% vs 16%), the public still think Labour on balance is prioritising balancing the books over economic growth (33% vs 25%).
Compared to September when the public thought Rachel Reeves’s speeches were being written by George Osborne, there is some movement in more people now thinking Labour is pro-growth, but overall people still think Labour is prioritising balancing the books.
| Do you think the government’s priority should be… | 25 Sep 24 | 5 Feb 25 |
| … improving the state of public finances through targeted spending cuts and tax increases? | 18% | 16% |
| … driving economic growth by increasing investment in productivity, employment, and innovation? | 58% | 55% |
| Party attributes | —- | —- |
| The Conservative Party would prefer to … | 25 Sep 24 | 5 Feb 25 |
| … improve the state of public finances through targeted spending cuts and tax increases? | 25% | 20% |
| … drive economic growth by increasing investment in productivity, employment, and innovation? | 38% | 33% |
| The Labour Party would prefer to … | 25 Sep 24 | 5 Feb 25 |
| … improve the state of public finances through targeted spending cuts and tax increases? | 44% | 33% |
| … drive economic growth by increasing investment in productivity, employment, and innovation? | 26% | 25% |
Heathrow
Nationwide support for Heathrow expansion low: 21% of UK adults support the idea of expanding Heathrow Airport by adding a third runway, while 27% oppose it and 36% said ‘neither’.
UK-EU relations
Public comfortable with idea of a UK-EU Youth Mobility Scheme: the public tend to support the idea of a UK-EU Youth Mobility Scheme (37% support, 22% oppose). The full proposition tested was:
A UK-EU Youth Mobility Scheme would be an agreement between the UK and the EU whereby any 18-30 year old in either place would have the right to travel to the UK or an EU country for any purpose for up to 4 years, on the condition that the individual has a passport, comprehensive sickness insurance, and sufficient means to support themselves. There would be no caps on numbers. Family members could join this individual. People eligible for this Scheme would not be allowed to settle long term in the EU member states or the UK.
Public want to prioritise EU relations over US relations: If forced to choose, the public would tend to prefer “Greater cooperation with the European Union and less with the United States” (43%) over “Greater cooperation with the United States and less with the European Union” (24%).Approval ratings for party leaders