Opinium Voting Intention: 22nd January 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings
Keir Starmer’s net approval has dipped again to a record low of -35%. Kemi Badenoch has dropped from -12% to -15%. Ed Davey from +2% to 0% while Nigel Farage has climbed slightly from -9% to -7%..
*Changes are from 8th January.
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| Keir Starmer | 21% | 19% | 55% | 6% | -35% | -2 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 19% | 33% | 34% | 14% | -15% | -3 |
| Ed Davey | 21% | 41% | 21% | 16% | 0% | -2 |
| Nigel Farage | 32% | 21% | 39% | 9% | -7% | +2 |
What made the news this week?
US politicians and developments have dominated the news on this side of the channel:
The biggest political news revolves around the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump (57% heard a lot about this), including the various executive orders he signed (50%) and Elon Musk’s right-arm salute (44%). A further 42% have heard a lot about the TikTok ban coming into force in the US and being restored 14 hours later.
Coming just behind the US-focused news was the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that began on the 19th of January (41% heard a lot about this).
The top UK news is the launch of a public inquiry into why the authorities failed to stop the Southport murderer (30% heard a lot about this).
| Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard | |
| The presidential inauguration of Donald Trump | 57% | 34% | 10% | 90% |
| Donald Trump signing various executive orders after being sworn in | 50% | 34% | 16% | 84% |
| Elon Musk doing a right-arm salute after Trump’s inauguration | 44% | 33% | 23% | 77% |
| TikTok ban coming into force in the US and being restored 14 hours later | 42% | 41% | 17% | 83% |
| The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that began on the 19th of January | 41% | 43% | 16% | 84% |
| The launch of a public inquiry into why the authorities failed to stop the Southport murderer | 30% | 42% | 28% | 72% |
| Tulip Siddiq resigns as Treasury minister | 15% | 36% | 49% | 51% |
| The UK inflation rate dropping from 2.6% to 2.5% in December | 15% | 46% | 39% | 61% |
| The UK’s economy growing by 0.1% in November | 14% | 42% | 44% | 56% |
Donald Trump
UK verdict – strong, can get things done, and sticks to his principle, but also untrustworthy and no friend of Britain: DonaldTrump’s key strengths according to the public are being a strong leader (49%), being able to get things done (49%) and sticking to his principles (48%). However, the public also think he is untrustworthy (56%) and disagree with the idea that he is a friend of this country (40%).
| To what extent do you agree or disagree that Donald Trump … | Agree | Disagree |
| …is a strong leader | 49% | 29% |
| …is able to get things done | 49% | 23% |
| …sticks to his principles rather than just saying what people want to hear | 48% | 28% |
| …has the USA’s best interests at heart | 42% | 33% |
| …represents what most Americans think | 38% | 33% |
| …is a friend of Britain’s | 26% | 40% |
| …is trustworthy | 20% | 56% |
Labour voters especially expect an awful Trump presidency: Three in ten (28%) think Trump will be a great or above-average president, while two in five (43%) think he will be a below-average or awful president. The single most common response given was that he would be an awful president (33%), rising to 46% among 2024 Labour voters and 2024 Lib Dems while 34% of Reform voters think he will be a great president.
US foreign relations under Trump
Trump’s election seen as bad for US relations with everyone
- The British public narrowly lean towards Trump’s election being a bad thing for the United States’ relations with the UK (27% good vs 33% bad), while most expect it to be bad for relations with the European Union (17% good vs 45% bad).
- The public also think Trump’s election will be bad for US relations with NATO (17% good vs 43% and for relations with China (16% good vs 44% bad).
| Do you think Trump’s election is good or bad for the United States’ relations with the following? | Good for… | Bad for… |
| United Kingdom | 27% | 33% |
| Israel | 26% | 27% |
| Russia | 23% | 35% |
| Ukraine | 21% | 38% |
| European Union | 17% | 45% |
| NATO | 17% | 43% |
| China | 16% | 44% |
UK should look to allies other than the US: Over two in five (45%) think the UK Government should focus on improving its ties with allies other than the United States, compared to three in ten (30%) who think it should focus on improving its ties with a United States led by Donald Trump. In particular, 2024 Labour voters would prefer to shift away from Trump’s US (58% vs 24% who believe the UK should improve ties with the US under Trump).
UK public split on likelihood of Trump ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Two in five (41%) think it is likely that the Russia-Ukraine war will end during Trump’s presidency, with the same proportion thinking it is unlikely (41%).
Public more likely to think Trump’s election gives Russia than Ukraine an edge: The British public tend to think Trump’s election will benefit Russia the most (38%) rather than benefiting Ukraine the most (13%). However, 22% think it will benefit both equally.
TikTok
Public oppose social media bans: the public tend to oppose bans on social media platforms, especially YouTube (62% oppose a ban), Instagram (46%) and Facebook (48%). Opinions are a bit more split when it comes to TikTok (26% support a ban, 36% oppose a ban) and X/Twitter (25% support a ban, 35% oppose a ban), but still lean towards opposing a ban.
| Thinking about the UK, to what extent to support or oppose a ban on the following platforms? | Support a ban | Oppose a ban |
| TikTok | 26% | 36% |
| X (formerly Twitter) | 25% | 35% |
| ChatGPT | 15% | 31% |
| 16% | 48% | |
| 13% | 46% | |
| YouTube | 7% | 62% |
Israel-Gaza
Pessimism about the durability of the ceasefire: three fifths (62%) of the public think it is unlikely that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will end up being permanent and end the war. Only a fifth (19%) think it is likely to bring a permanent end to the war.
AI
Public are not convinced of AI use in government and public sector: The public are divided on the use of AI in the public sector, with a third (34%) opposing its use while 29% support it.
Younger adults are more comfortable with use of AI: Under 35s are the only age group to be more likely to support (37%) than oppose (31%) the use of AI in the public sector
Brexit divide: Remain voters are more likely to support AI use in the public sector (37% support, 28% oppose) while Leave voters tend to oppose its use (22% support, 41% oppose).