Opinium Voting Intention: 19th February 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings for party leaders
Keir Starmer’s net approval has not changed since our last voting intention poll, remaining strongly disapproved of (-33%). Kemi Badenoch has dropped 5 points to -20% approval, while Ed Davey and Nigel Farage scores have declined 2 points, though within the margin of error.
*Changes from 5th February 2025
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| Keir Starmer | 21% | 17% | 55% | 7% | -33% | +1 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 18% | 29% | 38% | 15% | -20% | -5 |
| Ed Davey | 21% | 39% | 22% | 19% | -2% | -2 |
| Nigel Farage | 30% | 22% | 38% | 10% | -9% | -2 |
Keir Starmer continues to lead Kemi Badenoch on the best prime minister question by 25% to 15%, however 45% say “none of these”. This includes 28% of 2024 Labour voters, 40% of 2024 Tory voters and 76% of 2024 Reform voters.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Trackers: Leader attributes
- Government handling of housing and public services
- Perceptions of British military
- Ukraine – Russia conflict
What made the news this week?
The beginning of negotiations between the US and Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine has dominated the British public’s attention. This is followed by the Delta Air jet than crash landed in Toronto without loss of life, the release of the most recent Bridget Jones movie and news about the health situation of Pope Francis.
| News stories tested | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard |
| The beginning of negotiations between the USA and Russia over Ukraine | 38% | 46% | 17% | 83% |
| The Delta Air jet that overturned on landing in Toronto with no loss of life | 29% | 48% | 23% | 77% |
| The release of the latest Bridget Jones movie: Mad About the Boy | 26% | 43% | 32% | 68% |
| Vatican says that Pope Francis faces ‘complex’ health situation and will stay in hospital | 21% | 47% | 33% | 67% |
| Controversy over claims Rachel Reeves made in her CV and her expenses in her former job | 26% | 38% | 37% | 63% |
| British couple, Craig and Lindsay Foreman, charged with espionage in Iran | 16% | 44% | 40% | 60% |
| The 2025 Munich Security Conference | 11% | 28% | 60% | 40% |
Labour leads on party attributes
*Changes from 27th November 2024
Labour remains in net negative territory among all party attributes asked of, with little change since November. There have been small drops among their perception of being competent and united.
| Do you agree or disagree that the Labour party… | Net agreement now | Net agreement on 27th Nov | Change since 27th Nov |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -21% | -22% | +1 |
| …represents what most people think | -25% | -27% | +2 |
| …has similar views to my own | -23% | -25% | +1 |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -16% | -15% | -1 |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | -15% | -12% | -3 |
| …knows what it stands for | -12% | -10% | -2 |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -24% | -22% | -2 |
| …is competent | -22% | -19% | -3 |
| …is united | -13% | -9% | -4 |
| …is tolerant | -8% | -9% | +1 |
The Conservatives score worse than Labour on all party attributes . Their net scores have fallen on every attribute since late November, the biggest drops on representing what people think and having a sense of purpose.
| Do you agree or disagree that the Conservative party… | Net agreement now | Net agreement on 27th Nov | Change since 27th Nov |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -36% | -31% | -5 |
| …represents what most people think | -34% | -24% | -9 |
| …has similar views to my own | -26% | -17% | -8 |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -22% | -16% | -7 |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | -21% | -12% | -9 |
| …knows what it stands for | -13% | -7% | -6 |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -25% | -18% | -7 |
| …is competent | -26% | -19% | -6 |
| …is united | -30% | -24% | -7 |
| …is tolerant | -18% | -14% | -4 |
| …is ready for government | -33% | -26% | -7 |
Government handling of…
Housing
People believe Labour would be better than the Conservatives at handling all presented housing issues, however scepticism over both parties is high as neither was the most commonly chosen response at each issue.
Labour’s strongest area is housing for low-income households (31% vs. 13%). There’s more agreement on the best party for renters (Labour leads by 11 points) compared to owners with mortgages (Labour leads by 2 points).
| Labour government | Conservative government | Neither | Not sure | Labour lead | |
| Reducing the cost of mortgages | 20% | 18% | 43% | 18% | +2 |
| Reducing the cost of renting | 26% | 15% | 41% | 18% | +11 |
| Housing for first time buyers | 25% | 16% | 39% | 19% | +9 |
| Housing for low income households | 31% | 13% | 39% | 17% | +17 |
| Long-term planning for future housing | 26% | 17% | 40% | 17% | +10 |
Public services
Similarly to the previous question, people trust Labour over the Conservative to do a better job at handling public services, although ‘neither’ was still the most commonly chosen response across most issues.
| Labour government | Conservative government | Neither | Not sure | Labour lead | |
| Allocation funding to public services | 29% | 20% | 34% | 17% | +9 |
| Working with public sector workers | 35% | 16% | 33% | 16% | +19 |
| Making public services efficient | 25% | 19% | 40% | 16% | +6 |
| Long-term planning of public services | 27% | 20% | 36% | 17% | +8 |
| Quality of public services | 29% | 18% | 38% | 16% | +12 |
War & conflict
British military
Public opinion is divided on the capability of the armed forces to defend the UK, with 45% deeming them capable compared 33% who think they are incapable.
The public think conflict is on the horizon, as half (55%) think it likely the UK will need to participate in a major military conflict in the next 5 years compared to a fifth (20%) but think it not likely. A quarter are not sure (25%).
A majority (60%) of people believe the UK should increase defence spending. Cutting spending elsewhere is the favoured way of funding this increase (40%), compared to 20% who think it should be done through tax rises. Only 16% believe the UK should not increase defence spending. If the UK increased its defence spending, modernising military equipment and expanding troop numbers are considered most important (both 34%), followed by cyber security (31%).
When provided with the choice, a third (36%) think ESG policies should not create barriers to investment in defence, compared to 14% who think ESG should exclude funding defence companies due to ethical concerns. Uncertainty is high on this issue however as 40% said they are not sure.
Ukraine-Russia conflict
With the conflict between Ukraine and Russia entering its 3 year, half (50%) continue to follow it somewhat or very closely, compared to (45%) who do not. Russian aggression toward Ukraine and NATO is considered the predominant reason for the current conflict (65%). There is a strong age divide on this issue – 82% of those aged 65+ take this view, dropping considerably to 47% of 18-34 year olds. Only 1 in 8 (13%) believe NATO and Western expansionism is instead the main cause of the conflict.
(+15), while also approving of both the current Labour and previous Conservative governments responses (+8 and +10 respectively). People are however very unhappy with the response of Donald Trump’s administration (-40).
| Approve | Disapprove | NET: Approve | Don’t know | |
| Current Lab government | 32% | 24% | +8 | 18% |
| Last Conservative government | 33% | 22% | +10 | 18% |
| Donald Trump’s administration | 17% | 56% | -39 | 11% |
| Joe Biden’s administration | 27% | 28% | -2 | 16% |
| European Union | 34% | 19% | +15 | 18% |
The British public hold mixed views on the diplomatic efforts by the US to end the current conflict in Ukraine, with 37% supporting and 35% opposing. Among major party voters’ opposition is higher with the exception of Reform voters who support the efforts.
In reaching a peace settlement most people believe retaining as much territory and freedom for Ukraine is most important (48%), compared to (32%) who think peace with the least loss of life should instead be prioritised. In the event a peace deal was agreed between the US and Russia without the agreement of Ukraine, 41% would support Western countries intervening militarily to protect Ukraine compared to 25% who oppose. A third however don’t know.
The British public would be supportive of the UK joining other major powers attempting to intervene militarily to protect Ukraine. People are slightly more supportive joining other European powers in intervening in the region compared to a NATO / Western-led coalition. There is still support, but to a lesser extent of the UK intervening alongside European countries geographically near to Ukraine.
“Would you support or oppose the UK attempting to intervene militarily to protect Ukraine if it was part of…
| Approve | Disapprove | NET: Approve | Don’t know | |
| US-led NATO-Western coalition to project Ukraine | 42% | 15% | +28 | 21% |
| Other major European power such as France and Germany | 48% | 14% | +34 | 17% |
| Other European countries near Ukraine, such as the Baltic states | 31% | 19% | +12 | 21% |