Opinium Voting Intention: 8th January 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings
Keir Starmer starts of 2025 with a steady net approval rating of -33% (-1), while Kemi Badenoch remains on -12% (0%). All Labour party politicians have experienced a drop in approval ratings since last asked about at the end of October, with Rachel Reeves has experienced the largest drop in approval ratings, now on -31% (-12).
Out of the two, 26% (+1) believe Keir Starmer would make the best prime minister, compared to only 16% (N/C) for Kemi Badenoch, while 42% (+1) think neither would be the best choice.
Key news events: Grooming Gangs
The biggest political news this week is the scandal of grooming gangs and child sexual abuse in the UK, with 3 in 4 (75%) having heard a lot or a little about this. Elon Musk has been front of mind for much of the public, due in part to his row with Keir Starmer over the government’s handling of the response to the grooming gangs (72%) as well as his calls for Nigel Farage to be replaced as Reform UK leader (71%).
The public disapproves of Labour’s response to the issue (-17%) but views the previous Conservative government’s handling as worse (-27%). Reform UK sees narrow approval (+1%), especially among Conservative voters (+13%), while Elon Musk’s comments are mostly disapproved of (-19%) except by Reform voters (+25%).
On a new national inquiry into grooming gangs, 36% support it, 28% prefer implementing existing recommendations, and 24% are unsure. Reform voters back a new inquiry strongly (58%), while Labour and Lib Dem voters lean toward implementing recommendations.
Comments by Robert Jenrick on mass migration and attitudes toward women divide opinion, with 34% finding them helpful and 35% unhelpful. Musk’s criticism of Labour and the government is seen as unhelpful by 47% of the public, though Reform voters are more supportive (46% helpful).
The NHS
The public disapproves of the Labour government’s handling of the NHS (NET -7%) and adult social care (-16%) thus far. This unsurprisingly has strong party divides, with Labour voters being far more supportive than voters of other parties.
When asked what the top priorities the government should have in managing and reforming the NHS, the two most popular priorities are clearing backlogs (52%) and increasing efficiency (45%), followed by modernising the NHS (27%).
The public is fairly optimistic that Keir Starmer’s ‘digital-first’ approach for the NHS will be beneficial, with 37% saying it will improve things compared to 19% who think it will worsen. A quarter (24%) however don’t think it’ll make a difference as well as not being sure (20%).
Nigel Farage and Reform
The public mostly have negative perceptions of Nigel Farage when rated by the above attributes, however he performs well on a few. His best attributes among voters is that he is perceived as principled, followed by being and decisive and strong leader. He does most badly in terms of being seen as a prospective Prime Minister and as trustworthy, as well not being able to take big decisions or having similar views to voters.
Despite calls from Elon Musk for Nigel Farage to be replaced as leader of Reform UK their voter base is strongly behind him, with 71% of 2024 Reform voters saying he is the best leader they could have at the moment compared to 11% who think they could have a better leader.